Experts once predicted that production volume of baby diapers would decline while adult diaper manufacturing would increase in Japan. This prediction was based on two factors—the growing aging population in Japan as well as the declining birthrate. However, as shown in table one, the production volume of baby diapers has increased significantly between 2012 and 2015. In fact, total production during this time increased 22.8% to reach 14.7 billion units. At the same time, adult diaper production increased significantly until 2015 when it remained flat at about 1.5 billion pieces. This plateau was caused by increased usage of incontinence pads and liners, which have improved absorbency levels to treat more incontinence sufferers.

The main reason why the baby diaper market has increased is the growing exports business. About half of all baby diapers made within Japan, about 246,000 tons worth, are exported outside of Japan. This has allowed the Japanese baby diaper market to grow even though domestic demand for the prod,ucts has remained flat. The largest percentage of Japanese diaper exports are destined for China, which accounted for 165,000 tons or 67.1% of total exports. This figure was nearly double the amount of diapers shipped to China in 2014.

Japanese diaper manufacturers such as Unicharm, Kao and Daio Paper produce infant diapers in China as well as in Japan. However, the products made in Japan tend to be of higher quality than their Chinese-made counterparts. Therefore, many Chinese consumers prefer to use Japanese-made diapers, even though they are more expensive.

In Japan, demand for nonwovens and superabsorbent polymers is significantly increasing due to the increase in production of diapers. Some companies are importing from overseas subsidiaries to supply diaper manufacturers to keep up with local demand. This trend is likely to continue as demand for Japanese-made diapers continue to grow in China following the relaxation of the one-child policy to the two-child policy.